by InTrieste
The price of a simple espresso, a staple of Italian life, has surged by 15 percent over the past three years and is on track to rise even further, potentially hitting a record €2 per cup in the coming months, according to industry experts.
Currently, the average price of a cup of coffee in Italy stands at €1.50, but the dramatic fluctuations in the cost of green coffee—the raw commodity essential to brewing that perfect espresso—are driving the increase. This volatility is primarily fueled by unprecedented climate challenges and global supply chain disruptions, according to Cristina Scocchia, CEO of the famed Italian coffee brand, illycaffè.
“Today, green coffee costs 245 cents per pound—66 percent higher than last year, and more than double the price from three years ago,” Ms. Scocchia said during a recent interview. “The primary cause of these steep price hikes is climate change, which could cut cultivated coffee lands in half by 2050.”
The effects of extreme weather have been felt across key coffee-producing regions, with Brazil facing torrential rains and Vietnam grappling with severe drought. Such climatic shocks have impacted production, exacerbating the difficulties faced by coffee farmers worldwide. Compounding these challenges, the global supply chain has struggled to cope with delays and rising costs, worsened by disruptions like the blockage of the Suez Canal in 2021. These challenges have added further strain to the already delicate coffee supply chain.
“In the short and medium term, we are facing significant pressure on the supply chain, not only from climate change but also from logistical issues,” Ms. Scocchia explained. “The Suez Canal blockage has increased transport costs and led to longer delivery times, while speculation in the commodities market, particularly in soft commodities like coffee, has also played a role.”
For illycaffè, the past two years have been particularly challenging. The company’s production costs have increased by 17 percent during the 2022-2023 period. Despite these financial pressures, the coffee giant has passed on only a fraction of these increases to consumers, Ms. Scocchia noted. In January 2022 and January 2023, illycaffè raised prices by just 3 percent each time—effectively absorbing two-thirds of the cost increases.
“As of now, we have no intention of raising the price of our products further,” Ms. Scocchia stated, emphasizing the company’s commitment to supporting both its B2B and B2C customers. “But, of course, we will have to reassess if this upward trend continues.”
With coffee producers and consumers alike bracing for the potential impact of prolonged climate instability, the prospect of a €2 espresso—once unthinkable in Italy’s cafés—may soon become a reality.
